不断变化的经济条件下银行特有的动态对盈利能力的影响:加纳的证据

R. Apau, Athenia Bongani Sibindi
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摘要

分析师不断要求解释为何储户和投资者的资金不断流向表现持续不佳的银行,而普遍银行业务的前提是能够跑赢市场。本研究采用动态面板系统广义矩量法(GMM)技术,对从加纳 18 家通用银行收集的面板数据进行分析,探讨了在不断变化的经济条件下,银行层面的因素对银行盈利能力的影响。数据收集期为 2007 年至 2021 年。分析表明,滞后资产回报率、资本充足率和存款与总资产比率对银行盈利能力有积极影响,而滞后股本回报率、银行规模、支出和资产质量对盈利能力有消极影响。虽然这些变量对盈利能力的影响是文献所预期的,但资产质量的证据与文献的解释不一致,因为资产质量的提高预期会推动盈利能力的显著提高。此外,当经济扩张对银行资产回报产生恶化影响时,经济增长与银行绩效之间存在负相关关系。这可能与投资者和客户的资金分散到其他投资有关,这限制了银行可用于发放贷款以获取利息收入的资金量。根据研究结果,可以得出这样的结论,即银行的特定动态适应经济条件的变化,这可以用适应性市场假说的规范准则来解释。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effect of bank-specific dynamics on profitability under changing economic conditions: Evidence from Ghana
Analysts continue to demand explanations for the continuous flow of depositors’ and investors’ funds to persistently underperforming banks, while universal banking is premised on the ability to outperform the market. This study examines the effect of bank-level factors on the profitability of banks under changing economic conditions, using a dynamic panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique for panel data collected from 18 universal banks in Ghana. The data collection period was from 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that lagged return on assets, capital adequacy ratio, and deposit to total asset ratio have a positive influence on bank profitability, whereas lagged return on equity, bank size, expenditure, and asset quality negatively impact profitability. While the effect of these variables on profitability is expected considering the literature, the evidence obtained for asset quality is inconsistent with the explanations in the literature as an increase in asset quality is expected to drive an impressive trend in profitability. Furthermore, a negative relationship was found to exist between economic growth and bank performance when economic expansion exerts a deteriorating effect on the returns on bank assets. This can be linked to the dispersion of investors’ and customers’ funds to other investments, which limits the amount of funds available to the banks to grant credits for interest income. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that bank-specific dynamics adapt to changes in economic conditions which can be explained by the normative guidelines of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.
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