Green transport and renewable power: an integrated analysis for India's future

ABSTRACT This study addresses the challenge of decarbonizing India's transportation and power sectors, which jointly contribute to around 35% of the nation's emissions. The research introduces a transport model designed to project the growth of EVs within the 2-wheeler (2W) and 4-wheeler passenger (4W) segments, considering different policy scenarios. These scenarios are assessed for their impact on technology adoption, fossil fuel demand, power requirements, and CO2 emissions. Additionally, the study presents a demand model to forecast national electricity demand. The power model is also developed and linked with the transport and demand models to evaluate different fuel mix options for meeting the projected national power demand through 2050. The findings reveal that ambitious policy scenarios can drive EVs to constitute roughly 45% of all 2W and 4W vehicles on Indian roads by 2050, substantially increasing electricity demand to an estimated 295 TWh with a 40% reduction in CO2 emissions within the transport sector. Significantly, the soft linkage between these models underscores the potential for India to meet up to 90% of its national electricity demand through renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydropower. The research underscores the feasibility of transitioning towards a low-carbon energy system through renewable energy and EV integration.