基于头尾断裂的中国城市 COVID-19 流行病时空风险特征描述方法

Tingting Wu, Bisong Hu, Jin Luo, Shuhua Qi
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摘要

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)大流行在全球造成了巨大影响。描述 COVID-19 等紧急疫情的风险动态对疫情控制和应急管理大有裨益。本文提出了一种表征 COVID-19 流行病时空风险的新方法。我们分析了2020年1月20日至4月12日367个城市COVID-19确诊病例的重尾分布和空间层次,以及2019年的人口密度数据,并对COVID-19确诊病例和人口密度两个参数进行建模,测算出每个城市的风险值,从时空变化的角度对疫情进行评估。从时空角度评估了高风险地区的演变模式。高风险城市的数量从第 1 周的 57 个减少到第 12 周的 6 个。结果表明,基于头尾断裂法的风险测量模型能够描述 COVID-19 风险的时空演变特征,能较好地预测各城市未来疫情的风险趋势,即使在低发病期也能识别未来疫情的风险。与传统的风险评估方法模型相比,它更加关注各城市空间水平的差异,为疫情传播风险水平的评估提供了新的视角。它具有通用性和灵活性,为传染病的预防提供了一定的参考,也为政府实施策略提供了理论依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Head/Tail Breaks-Based Approach to Characterizing Space-Time Risks of COVID-19 Epidemic in China's Cities
The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic has caused enormous impacts around the world. Characterizing the risk dynamics for urgent epidemics such as COVID-19 is of great benefit to epidemic control and emergency management. This article presents a novel approach to characterizing the space-time risks of the COVID-19 epidemic. We analyzed the heavy-tailed distribution and spatial hierarchy of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 367 cities from 20 January to 12 April 2020, and population density data for 2019, and modelled two parameters, COVID-19 confirmed cases and population density, to measure the risk value of each city and assess the epidemic from the perspective of spatial and temporal changes. The evolution pattern of high-risk areas was assessed from a spatial and temporal perspective. The number of high-risk cities decreased from 57 in week 1 to 6 in week 12. The results show that the risk measurement model based on the head/tail breaks approach can describe the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the risk of COVID-19, and can better predict the risk trend of future epidemics in each city and identify the risk of future epidemics even during low incidence periods. Compared with the traditional risk assessment method model, it pays more attention to the differences in the spatial level of each city and provides a new perspective for the assessment of the risk level of epidemic transmission. It has generality and flexibility and provides a certain reference for the prevention of infectious diseases as well as a theoretical basis for government implementation strategies.
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