影响经济制裁效果的因素研究

Huicheol Yun, Hyeonsik Kim
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了影响国际社会对受制裁国家实施经济制裁效果的因素。本文设定了国内和国际两个层面的因果变量,并通过对四个受到经济制裁的国家进行分析,试图确定哪些变量会减轻经济制裁的效果。国内变量被设定为受制裁国家的政治制度和经济规模,而国际变量则包括贸易网络、外国直接投资、国际组织的参与和联盟的形成(援助国的存在)。通过分析对伊朗、俄罗斯、缅甸和印巴实施经济制裁的原因、进展和影响,可以发现国内变量和国际变量都会产生影响。特别是援助国的存在,即所谓的第三国效应,被分析为对制裁的可接受性有积极影响。本研究将此应用于北朝鲜,以验证第三国效应对经济制裁效果摇摆不定的影响,旨在为有效的经济制裁措施找到启示,从而促使北朝鲜在未来发生行为变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Study on Factors Affecting the Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions
This paper analyzes the factors influencing the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on sanctioned countries in the international community. It sets up causal variables at both domestic and international levels and, through an analysis of four countries that have been subjected to economic sanctions, seeks to determine which variables mitigated the effectiveness of economic sanctions. Domestic variables are set as the political system and economic size of the sanctioned country, while international variables include trade networks, foreign direct investment, involvement of international organizations, and alliance formation (presence of assisting countries). Analyzing the causes, progress, and effects of economic sanctions imposed on Iran, Russia, Myanmar, and India-Pakistan, it is found that both domestic and international variables had an impact. Particularly, the presence of assisting countries, known as the third-country effect, is analyzed to have a positive impact on sanction acceptability. Applying this to North Korea to verify the impact of the wavering effectiveness of economic sanctions due to the third-country effect, the study aims to find implications for efficient economic sanction measures that can lead to behavioral changes in North Korea in the future.
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