Reshoring and Friendshoring as Factors in Changing the Geography of International Supply Chains

Abstract The text covers the projection of the potential impact of the currently observed processes in the world economy on the international supply chains’ geography. The economic effects of the pandemic, the modern trade war and Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine are considered key factors in changing this geography. When examining the importance of these factors, the matrix of three components of global supply chains is adopted: production centres, transport corridors and consumption centres. The reasoning allowed for rejecting both the scenario of maintaining the so-called hyper-globalisation and forming a bilateral system of two isolated and hostile economic systems. The presented arguments lead to the expectation of a mixed solution in the form of the simultaneous existence of a system of high globalisation and concentrated regional systems. The primary objective of this study is to identify and assess emerging trends in the configuration of international supply chains. On this basis, it is also intended to identify the most likely scenario for the future formation of the geography of international supply chains. The research used the literature study methodology and deductive inference of the consequences of the identified processes taken as premises for reasoning. The above-presented arguments lead to the assumption that the so-called hyper-globalisation is probably unsustainable. Various economic, political, technological and social factors make it impossible to sustain, let alone further develop, the current logic of shaping the global economic system. A world economy system with a hybrid structure is expected to emerge. The model of full globalisation will coexist with the model of a multilateral structure with a regional character centred around the main consumption and production centres. The factors determining the evolution of economic globalisation have been systematised. Their potential impact is described, and a likely scenario for change is presented. The achieved results can contribute to the design of economic policy at the level of individual countries and their groupings.