作为政治风险因素的政治选举对金融市场的影响:2023 年土耳其总统选举案例研究

Esra Karpuz, Yasemin Deniz Koç, Onur Demi̇r
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在利用事件研究方法分析 2023 年总统选举对 BIST-30 指数的影响。在评估土耳其 2023 年总统选举对 BIST-30 指数中交易公司股票回报的影响时,第一轮选举的非正常回报为负,而第二轮选举的非正常回报为正。研究结果表明,虽然投资者在选举过程中的预期是市场继续保持稳定,但第二轮选举却导致了与预期相反的负面反应。在第二轮选举中,选举结果与市场预期一致,市场出现了正的异常回报。缺乏对 2023 年政治选举的研究是本研究的独创性所在,也是对文献的贡献所在。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Political Elections on Financial Markets as Political Risk Factor: A Case Study of the 2023 Turkey Presidential Elections
The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of the 2023 Presidential elections on the BIST-30 index using the event study methodology. When evaluating the findings regarding the impact of the 2023 Presidential elections held in Turkey on the stock returns of companies traded in the BIST-30 index, in the 1st round election is a negative abnormal return while the 2nd round election has a positive abnormal return. According to the research findings, while investors' expectations during the election process were towards the continuation of market stability, the elections proceeding to the 2nd round led to a negative reaction contrary to those expectations. In the second round, the election outcome, which aligned with market expectations, is met with a positive abnormal return in the market. The absence of a study conducted on the 2023 political elections is the originality of the research and its contribution to the literature.
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