印度尼西亚雅加达火灾发生的空间分析

Ika Rosantiningsih, Chotib Chotib
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摘要

雅加达特别首都区城中村火灾事故的发生严重影响了损失,因此必须努力预防和处理。因此,本研究旨在分析社会和物理变量(自变量)对雅加达首都特区火灾(因变量)的空间影响,如性别比、弱势年龄人口、建筑物数量和贫民窟面积。分析区域包括雅加达首都特区的五个市。二手数据来自雅加达首都特区中央统计局,地图来自官方网站 jakartasatu.jakarta.go.id,出版物数据来自雅加达首都特区政府 2020 年的出版物。此外,还使用 Microsoft Excel 和 GeoDa 1.20.0.10 版进行描述性和推论性定量分析,以评估相邻分区之间的空间关系。虽然使用 GeoDa 的回归数据处理结果显著,但使用拉格朗日乘数(LM)滞后和拉格朗日乘数(LM)误差 > 0.05 的空间回归结果不显著,而使用参数 0.1 时则显著。这说明雅加达首都特区的火灾症状并不具有空间效应,这与使用 Morans'I 和 Scatter Plots 观察到的因变量和自变量之间的聚类相反。这项研究的结果可以帮助雅加达省政府通过调整贫民窟地区的结构来预防和处理潜在的火灾,从而将此类事件发生的可能性降至最低。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF FIRE OCCURRENCE IN JAKARTA, INDONESIA
The occurrence of fire incidents in urban villages of Jakarta Special Capital Region significantly impacted losses, necessitating prevention and handling efforts. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatial influence of social and physical variables (independent variables) such as sex ratio, vulnerable age population, number of buildings, and size of slum areas on fires (dependent variable) in Jakarta Special Capital Region. The analysis area includes five municipalities of Jakarta Special Capital Region. Secondary data were obtained from Central Agency of Statistics of Jakarta Special Capital Region, maps from the official site jakartasatu.jakarta.go.id, and publication data from Government of Jakarta Special Capital Region for 2020. Furthermore, the quantitative approach in descriptive and inferential analysis, determined using Microsoft Excel and GeoDa version 1.20.0.10, was used to evaluate the spatial relationships between adjacent sub-districts. Although the regression data processing results using GeoDa were significant, the spatial regression results with Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Lag and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) error > 0.05 were insignificant and significant when using the parameter 0.1. This means fire symptoms in Jakarta Special Capital Region do not have a spatial effect, contrary to the clustering observed between dependent and independent variables using Morans'I and Scatter Plots. The results of this study can aid the Jakarta provincial government in preventing and handling potential fires by restructuring slum areas to minimize the likelihood of such incidents.
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