A war foretold: How Western mainstream news media omitted NATO eastward expansion as a contributing factor to Russia’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine

This article assesses how Western mainstream news media framed causal factors of Russia’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine. The article is based on a synthesis and integration of scholarly studies as well as a primary data analysis of Western mainstream newspaper reporting. The research firstly conducts an integrative literature review investigating how Western mainstream news media have reported on Russia and the new Cold War more broadly. Using this as a backdrop, a quantitative and qualitative content study investigates how causes of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine were framed in the US, the UK and the German press. To contextualize news media framing, the second section critically assesses the Western diplomatic and historical record of NATO expansion. The article identifies two competing explanatory frameworks: the dominant Western news media narrative assumes that Russia/Putin’s imperial ambitions and nefarious traits have caused the war, and a second narrative, advanced by several scholars, former diplomats and selected journalists, asserts that NATO’s eastward expansion created the context for Russia’s invasion. The article concludes that the second narrative has been de-emphasized in the news. Such framing is contrary to the historical and documentary record, and links to a marginalization of non-military solutions to solve the conflict.