验证 WRF 模型预测并将其用于印度比哈尔邦的农业决策支持

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

MAUSAM Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI:10.54302/mausam.v75i1.6037

Priyanka Singh, R. Mall, K. K. Singh, A. K. Das

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引用次数: 0

摘要

高空间分辨率天气预报与农业和水资源管理决策支持的关系日益密切。目前的工作是对 IMD-WRF 模型在印度比哈尔邦纳兰达、苏鲍尔和东占婆兰地区 3 天前的降雨预报进行验证。通过对 2020 年和 2021 年季风的村级每日现场观测，评估了该模型在 3 天预报时间内的技能。结果表明，整个区域的预报与观测结果一致，尤其是在苏帕尔地区，所有分区约 70% 的降雨日和无雨日都得到了正确预测。此外，几乎所有地方的 FAR 都为 0.25。这项评估支持提前 3 天将 WRF 模式预报用于农业。然而，定量验证表明，模型输出对中雨的预测更为可靠。

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Verification of WRF model forecasts and their use for agriculture decision support in Bihar, India

Weather forecasting with high spatial resolution become increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. Present work is carried out for verification of IMD-WRF Model rainfall forecast with 3 days lead time over Nalanda, Supaul and East Champaran districts in Bihar, India. The model’s skill up to a lead time of 3 days is evaluated with panchayat level daily in situ observations for Monsoon 2020 and 2021. Results show good agreement of forecast and observation throughout the domain and particularly over Supaul district, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted for all panchayat. Also, FAR is <.3 in 90 percent of the panchayat and HK is also found >.25 in almost all places. This evaluation supports the use of WRF model forecast in agriculture up to 3 days in advance. However the quantitative verification suggests that model output is more reliable for moderate rainfall

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来源期刊

MAUSAM 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

1298

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： MAUSAM (Formerly Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics), established in January 1950, is the quarterly research journal brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). MAUSAM is a medium for publication of original scientific research work. MAUSAM is a premier scientific research journal published in this part of the world in the fields of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics. The four issues appear in January, April, July & October.