Increasing Access to a Four–Year College: Impacts of a California State University Guaranteed Admission Program on College Enrollment Rates

Guaranteed admission programs are a type of college access program that provide students who meet certain criteria (e.g., a minimum GPA) with guaranteed admission to one or more colleges. This paper studies guaranteed admission agreements between California State University San Marcos (CSUSM) and its local school district to evaluate if smaller scale, local guaranteed admission programs have comparable impacts on college enrollment rates to previously studied state-wide programs. Employing a regression discontinuity (RD) design around the program’s GPA cutoff conditional on students satisfying other program requirements, this paper finds that the program significantly increased enrollment at CSUSM and at any California State University (CSU) and increased (not significantly) the likelihood of students enrolling at four-year institutions compared to two-year alternatives. In addition, the program disproportionally affected students from underrepresented backgrounds (e.g., first-generation, nonwhite, and low-income backgrounds), suggesting that local guaranteed admission programs also have the potential to increase representation at four-year public institutions and encourage underrepresented students to enroll at higher-quality postsecondary institutions. KEYWORDS: Guaranteed Admission; College Enrollment; College Admissions; College Access; Higher Education; California State University; Education Policy; Local Policy