Dynamic Structural Equation Models: Promising Yet Concerning

Dynamic Structural Equation Model (DSEM) is a powerful statistical modeling approach that has recently gained popularity among researchers studying intensive longitudinal data. Despite its exciting potential, the stability and replicability of DSEM is yet to be closely examined. This study empirically investigates DSEM using recently published data to explore its strengths and potential limitations. The results show that while some of its parameter estimates are stable, others are characterized by substantial variation as a function of seemingly innocuous initial model estimation conditions. Indeed, some parameters fluctuate between significance and non-significance for the same model estimated using the same data. The instability of DSEM estimates poses a serious threat to the internal and external validity of conclusions drawn from its analyses, challenging the reproducibility of findings from applied research. Given the recent focus on the replication crisis in psychology, it is critical to address these issues as the popularity of DSEM in psychological research continues to rise. Several potential solutions are investigated to address this problem and recommendations of best practice are offered to applied researchers who plan to use DSEM in intensive longitudinal data analysis. KEYWORDS: Dynamic Structural Equation Model; Bayesian; Robust Estimation; Intensive Longitudinal Data