Times of trouble—seasonal variation in number and severity of attacks on sheep caused by large carnivores and eagles in Sweden

Wildlife managers and livestock owners can choose from a multitude of interventions to prevent carnivore attacks on domestic animals, ranging from light and sound deterrents to fencing and lethal control. To guide management and make the best and most cost-effective choice of interventions, knowledge about where and when these measures are needed the most is important. By identifying spatiotemporal patterns of carnivore attacks, resources can be used more efficiently to prevent such attacks. We used a Swedish nationwide, long-term data set to identify inter- and intra-seasonal variation in probability, number, and severity (number of killed or injured per attack) of large carnivore attacks on sheep. Our results show that there are specific “times of trouble”, regarding the number of attacks from golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) in late spring, and from brown bears (Ursus arctos), lynx (Lynx lynx), and wolves (Canis lupus) in late summer. Additionally, for brown bears and wolves, the severity of attacks varied throughout the grazing season with a peak in the latter part of the summer. The results can be used for guidance of temporal prioritisation of preventive interventions to reduce the probability, number, and severity of large carnivore attacks on sheep.