竞争性专制选举中信息宣传的党派效应:孟加拉国的证据

Firoz Ahmed, Roland Hodler, Asad Islam
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摘要

为了研究在竞争激烈的专制选举中,非党派信息和 "拉票"(GOTV)活动对选民党派构成的影响,我们在 2018 年孟加拉国大选前进行了一次大规模的实地实验。我们的两种处理方法都强调了高投票率会提高获胜政党的合法性,以及选举结果对政策结果的影响。两种处理方法都提高了政府据点的投票率(以墨水标记衡量),但降低了反对党据点的投票率。我们解释了反对派支持者退出选举的原因,并得出结论:在竞争激烈的专制选举中,非党派信息和 GOTV 运动可以进一步改善不均衡的竞争环境。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Partisan Effects of Information Campaigns in Competitive Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Bangladesh
To study the effects of non-partisan information and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns on the partisan composition of the voting population in competitive authoritarian elections, we conducted a large-scale field experiment prior to the 2018 Bangladeshi general election. Our two treatments highlight that high turnout increases the winning party’s legitimacy and that election outcomes matter for policy outcomes. Both treatments increase turnout (measured by ink marks) in government strongholds but decrease turnout in opposition strongholds. We explain the withdrawal of treated opposition supporters and conclude that non-partisan information and GOTV campaigns can further tilt the uneven playing field in competitive authoritarian elections.
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