气候变化对中国青龙河流量的影响

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES
Xingpo Liu, Zixuan Tang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球流域的水资源和洪水灾害深受气候变化的影响。本研究预测了气候变化对中国北方青龙河河道流量的影响。主要对两种气候变化情景(RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5)下的青龙河流量(2021-2100 年)进行了多时间尺度的综合分析。将耦合模式相互比较项目第五阶段(CMIP5)中 31 个全球气候模式(GCMs)的气象数据作为水文模拟程序-Fortran(HSPF)的输入进行水文模拟。结果表明,RCP4.5 情景下的洪峰流量和日平均流量至少是历史阶段的 101.15% 和 110.14%,RCP8.5 情景下的洪峰流量和日平均流量至少是历史阶段的 108.89% 和 121.88%。在这两种情景下,夏季流量占年总流量的比例预计将从 61.46%(历史阶段)增加到 85%以上,而冬季流量占年总流量的比例预计将从 8.84%(历史阶段)减少到 0.5%以下。与历史阶段相比,在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下,未来多年平均年径流量的最大增幅分别为 30.34% 和 31.48%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impacts of climate change on streamflow of Qinglong River, China
Water resources and flood hazards in global watersheds are heavily influenced by climate change. In this study, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Qinglong River located in northern China is predicted. The streamflow of the Qinglong River (2021–2100) under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was mainly synthesized over multiple timescales. The meteorological data from 31 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used as inputs of the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) for hydrological simulation. Results show that the peak flood flow and average daily streamflow for the RCP4.5 scenario are at least 101.15 and 110.14% of the historical phase, and at least 108.89 and 121.88% of the historical phase for the RCP8.5 scenario. Under both scenarios, the proportion of summer streamflow to annual total streamflow is projected to increase from 61.46% (historical phase) to over 85%, while the proportion of winter streamflow to annual total streamflow is projected to decrease from 8.84% (historical phase) to below 0.5%. Compared to the historical period, the maximum increase in future multi-year average annual streamflow for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is 30.34 and 31.48%, respectively.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
10.70%
发文量
168
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.
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