尼日利亚的利率与通货膨胀:自回归分布滞后模型的经验证据

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Olufemi C. Ademola, Yimka S. A. Alalade, P. Ogbebor, Olalekan Aworinde
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引用次数: 0

摘要

政策制定者和学者继续就尼日利亚利率与通货膨胀之间的关系进行广泛讨论。这是因为,尽管尼日利亚的政策制定者和监管当局努力实现高水平的可持续增长,但多年来经济增长仍然受阻,主要原因是两位数的通货膨胀不断侵蚀价值。有鉴于此,本研究探讨了利率在过去 16 年中如何影响尼日利亚的通货膨胀率。本研究采用事后研究设计,使用 2006 年第一季度至 2022 年第四季度之间 68 个季度的时间序列数据。数据来自尼日利亚中央银行(CBN)、国家统计局(NBS)和世界发展指标(WDI)的数据库。研究采用了自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来分析利率对尼日利亚通货膨胀的影响,同时采用了增量迪基-富勒(ADF)和菲利普-珀伦(Phillip-Perron)进行静态检验。分析结果表明,利率与通货膨胀率存在长期显著的协整关系(Adj R2 = 0.48; F-stat (4, 63) = 19.61 p < 0.05)。因此,研究建议尼日利亚中央银行在管理尼日利亚的通货膨胀时,除了通过 MPR 的运作单纯利用利率外,还可以通过调节流通中的货币量来改变方法。此外,由于尼日利亚中央银行几乎无法控制其他因素,因此货币政策本身无法降低尼日利亚的通货膨胀率。为确保消除降低尼日利亚通货膨胀的所有障碍,报告建议货币当局与财政当局以及所有相关部委、部门和机构协同工作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Interest Rates and Inflation in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model
Policymakers and scholars continue to have extensive conversations about the relationship between interest rates and inflation in Nigeria. This is because, despite the efforts of Nigerian policymakers and regulatory authorities to achieve a high level of sustainable growth, the economy continued to witness stunted growth over the years, primarily due to double-digit inflation that continuously erodes value. In light of this, this study looked at how interest rates have affected Nigeria’s inflation rate over the last 16 years. The research design for this study is ex-post facto, using time series data for 68 quarters between Q1, 2006 to Q4, 2022. Data were obtained from the databases of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the World Development Indicator (WDI). The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the effect of interest rates on inflation in Nigeria, while the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron were employed for the stationarity test. The results of the analysis showed that interest rates have a long-run significant cointegrating relationship with the inflation rate (Adj R2 = 0.48; F-stat (4, 63) = 19.61 p < 0.05). The study therefore recommends that the CBN could alternate its approach to managing inflation in Nigeria by regulating the amount of money in circulation in addition to solely utilizing the interest rates through the MPR’s operation. Furthermore, since the CBN has little control over the other elements, monetary policy by itself is unable to reduce inflation in Nigeria. To guarantee the elimination of all barriers to reducing inflation in Nigeria, the report recommends that the monetary authority work in tandem with the fiscal authority and all pertinent ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs).
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来源期刊
WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics
WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
180
期刊介绍: WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics publishes original research papers relating to the global economy. We aim to bring important work using any economic approach to a wide international audience and therefore only publish papers of exceptional scientific value that advance our understanding of finances. The research presented must transcend the limits of case studies, while both experimental and theoretical studies are accepted. While its main emphasis is economic, it is a multi-disciplinary journal and therefore its content mirrors the diverse interests and approaches of scholars involved with the international dimensions of business, economics, finance, history, law, marketing, management, political science, and related areas. It also welcomes scholarly contributions from officials with government agencies, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations.
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