South African student retention during 2020: Evidence from system‐wide higher education institutional data

Using longitudinal, institutional data, we document the impact of COVID‐19 on undergraduate student retention at public universities in South Africa in 2020. We find that student dropout increased in 2020 for students in years 3–5, with little evidence of a change for those entering their second year of study. These aggregate findings mask significant differences across institutions. Students enrolled in most historically advantaged, traditional institutions, and some comprehensive institutions, were not significantly affected, whereas dropout increased significantly at the University of Fort Hare, Walter Sisulu University and the University of Venda, three historically disadvantaged institutions located in rural areas. No difference in retention is found, however, for students enrolled at the University of Zululand (UZ) or the University of Limpopo (UL), equally resource‐disadvantaged institutions where a majority (over 90%) of students are funded via the National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS). Furthermore, at institutions where dropout increased, NSFAS‐funded students were typically less impacted than their unfunded peers. Our overall findings accord with growing evidence that COVID‐19‐related changes in the sector differentially impacted students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. However, they also illustrate that the NSFAS bursary appears to have provided a social safety net during this time. Finally, the example of UZ and the UL provide suggestive evidence that institutional relational aspects not observed in our data are important too. Together, results foreground the complex interplay of factors impacting a student's decision to drop out of or remain in university, highlighting that institutional responses and/or relational context during a crisis like COVID‐19 can positively impact student retention.