中美贸易战下，香港还是转口港吗？

IF 1.1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI:10.1111/1468-0106.12442

Terence Tai Leung Chong, Vincent Pok Ho Lo

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文从贸易中介的角度研究香港经济。利用结构向量自回归（SVAR）框架，我们发现与贸易相关的外部冲击主要通过转口贸易渠道而非离岸贸易渠道影响经济。我们发现，转口贸易冲击不会通过就业渠道传导至实体经济。一个令人费解的现象是，与贸易相关的就业自 2008 年以来一直在下降。此外，我们注意到，虽然中美贸易战在 2018 年至 2019 年期间对经济增长造成了很大的下行压力，但贸易中介行业在 2020 年迅速复苏，反映了香港对外贸易行业的多功能性。

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Is Hong Kong still an entrepôt under the Sino‐U.S. trade war?

This paper studies the Hong Kong economy from a trade intermediary's perspective. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework, we discover that trade‐related external shocks mainly affect the economy through re‐exports channel over the offshore trade channel. We observe that re‐exports shock does not transmit to the real economy through the employment channel. A puzzling phenomenon is that trade‐related employment has been in decline since 2008. Moreover, we notice that although the Sino‐U.S. trade war exerted much downward pressure on economic growth between 2018 and 2019, the trade intermediary sector swiftly recovered in 2020, reflecting the versatility of the external trade sector in Hong Kong.

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来源期刊

Pacific Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Pacific Economic Review (PER) publishes high-quality articles in all areas of economics, both the theoretical and empirical, and welcomes in particular analyses of economic issues in the Asia-Pacific area. Published five times a year from 2007, the journal is of interest to academic, government and corporate economists. The Pacific Economic Review is the official publication of the Hong Kong Economic Association and has a strong editorial team and international board of editors. As a highly acclaimed journal, the Pacific Economic Review is a source of valuable information and insight. Contributors include Nobel Laureates and leading scholars from all over the world.