Assessment of Agrocenosis Factors Impact on Winter Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Northern Steppe Zone of Ukraine

Wheat is one of humanity’s leading food crops, and ensuring high, sustainable yields is the key to food security. The yield of the crop depends on the agrophytocenosis conditions, including meteorological factors, the number of weeds, pathogens and pests, which change from year to year. Crop yield forecasts are becoming necessary to make informed crop management decisions. The paper presents the results of the multiple regression analysis of actual field data in the system of integrated protection of winter wheat crops in the conditions of the Northern Steppe zone of Ukraine. The predictive value of the models that linked yield and gluten content in grain with the number of pathogens and pests was reduced due to the statistical insignificance of correlations between indicators. In order to overcome the shortcomings of modeling, it is probably necessary to use a more reliable algorithm and a larger sample of data. Regression models reflecting the correlation of yield and gluten content in grain with relative air humidity during the phase of milky ripeness of winter wheat grain showed predictive value (R2 = 91.9–99.7%) and made it possible to determine the necessary limits of the meteorological parameter to achieve high quantitative and qualitative yield indicators.