Does HIV/AIDS Prevalence Affect Labour Force Participation in Eastern African Countries? A Two-Stage Least Squares Approach

Abstract

Despite extensive global and regional efforts to mitigate population growth and HIV/AIDS, these challenges persist, with East African countries ranking among the top ten nations with the highest infection rates globally. This study employs a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) econometric model to analyse the effects of HIV/AIDS prevalence on labour force participation in East African countries, using World Bank data from 1990 to 2020. Since 1990, descriptive statistics reveal a decline in the prevalence of HIV/AIDS, and labour force participation rates have also declined. In 2020, Uganda recorded the lowest rate of 48%, compared to Burundi's 76% in the past. Inferential statistics highlight that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant negative impact, lowering labour force participation by 10%. This study contributes to the literature by identifying the complex relationships between HIV/AIDS and labour force participation in East Africa. The results suggest that the prevalence of HIV/AIDS has reduced labour force participation in the region, emphasising the need for governments to prioritize disease prevention and treatment. Physical and mental health challenges impede the labour force participation of the working-age population. Urgent interventions, such as health counseling services and sensitization programs, are necessary. In East African countries, the focus of government welfare policies should be on supporting the working population. Maintaining a healthy lifestyle can help in the prevention of HIV/AIDS and sustain an individual's labour force participation. This study concludes by underscoring the persistent challenges posed by HIV/AIDS and population growth to East African labour force participation. It calls for concerted efforts at the individual and government levels to address these issues and promote a healthier, more productive workforce in the region.