{"title":"欧盟主权债务过剩的威胁、新的财政规则和政策偏移的危险","authors":"Willi Semmler, Brigitte Young","doi":"10.1007/s40888-023-00319-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>After the Great Recession and the Covid Crisis the sovereign debt sustainability has again become a major public policy issue. Since the Great Recession Olivier Blanchard (2019) has put forward the theory of a “good and bad” debt equilibrium. The good debt equilibrium is usually supported by high economic growth rates, low risk premia, and lower interest rates, being sustainable and self-stabilizing. The bad debt equilibrium is driven by a self-fulfilling prophesy where higher risk premia, higher interest rates, and sovereign debt destabilize each, as also studied empirically by Paul De Grauwe (The Aust Econ Rev 45:255–68, 2012). Reconstructing those two equilibria and the threat of debt overhang for specific EU countries, we then: first explore possible escape routes from sovereign debt threats; second, evaluate the new EU fiscal rules that constrain the deficit spending to the growth rate of potential output; and third, evaluate the possible future EU policy drift endangering the new fiscal rules. Finally we stress the need for social buffers in the EU while intending to stabilize sovereign debt.</p>","PeriodicalId":44858,"journal":{"name":"Economia Politica","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Threats of sovereign debt overhang in the EU, the new fiscal rules and the perils of policy drift\",\"authors\":\"Willi Semmler, Brigitte Young\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s40888-023-00319-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>After the Great Recession and the Covid Crisis the sovereign debt sustainability has again become a major public policy issue. Since the Great Recession Olivier Blanchard (2019) has put forward the theory of a “good and bad” debt equilibrium. The good debt equilibrium is usually supported by high economic growth rates, low risk premia, and lower interest rates, being sustainable and self-stabilizing. The bad debt equilibrium is driven by a self-fulfilling prophesy where higher risk premia, higher interest rates, and sovereign debt destabilize each, as also studied empirically by Paul De Grauwe (The Aust Econ Rev 45:255–68, 2012). Reconstructing those two equilibria and the threat of debt overhang for specific EU countries, we then: first explore possible escape routes from sovereign debt threats; second, evaluate the new EU fiscal rules that constrain the deficit spending to the growth rate of potential output; and third, evaluate the possible future EU policy drift endangering the new fiscal rules. Finally we stress the need for social buffers in the EU while intending to stabilize sovereign debt.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44858,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economia Politica\",\"volume\":\"107 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economia Politica\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-023-00319-6\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economia Politica","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-023-00319-6","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
大衰退和科威德危机之后,主权债务的可持续性再次成为一个重要的公共政策问题。自大衰退以来,奥利维尔-布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard,2019 年)提出了 "好的和坏的 "债务均衡理论。好的债务均衡通常由高经济增长率、低风险溢价和较低利率支撑,具有可持续性和自我稳定性。坏的债务均衡是由一个自我实现的预言驱动的,即较高的风险溢价、较高的利率和主权债务会破坏各自的稳定,保罗-德-格劳韦(The Aust Econ Rev 45:255-68,2012 年)也对此进行了实证研究。通过重构这两个均衡以及特定欧盟国家的债务悬置威胁,我们首先探讨了摆脱主权债务威胁的可能途径;其次,评估了将赤字支出限制在潜在产出增长率范围内的欧盟新财政规则;第三,评估了危及新财政规则的欧盟未来可能的政策偏移。最后,我们强调欧盟在稳定主权债务的同时需要社会缓冲。
Threats of sovereign debt overhang in the EU, the new fiscal rules and the perils of policy drift
After the Great Recession and the Covid Crisis the sovereign debt sustainability has again become a major public policy issue. Since the Great Recession Olivier Blanchard (2019) has put forward the theory of a “good and bad” debt equilibrium. The good debt equilibrium is usually supported by high economic growth rates, low risk premia, and lower interest rates, being sustainable and self-stabilizing. The bad debt equilibrium is driven by a self-fulfilling prophesy where higher risk premia, higher interest rates, and sovereign debt destabilize each, as also studied empirically by Paul De Grauwe (The Aust Econ Rev 45:255–68, 2012). Reconstructing those two equilibria and the threat of debt overhang for specific EU countries, we then: first explore possible escape routes from sovereign debt threats; second, evaluate the new EU fiscal rules that constrain the deficit spending to the growth rate of potential output; and third, evaluate the possible future EU policy drift endangering the new fiscal rules. Finally we stress the need for social buffers in the EU while intending to stabilize sovereign debt.
期刊介绍:
This journal publishes peer-reviewed articles that link theory and analysis in political economy, promoting a deeper understanding of economic realities and more effective courses of policy action. Established in 1984, the journal has kept pace with the times in disseminating high-quality and influential research aimed at establishing fruitful links between theories, approaches and institutions. With this relaunch (which combines Springer’s worldwide scientific scope with the Italian cultural roots of il Mulino and Fondazione Edison, whose research has been published by the two mentioned publishers for many years), the journal further reinforces its position in the European and international economic debate and scientific community. Furthermore, this move increases its pluralistic attention to the role that – at the micro, sectoral, and macro level – institutions and innovation play in the unfolding of economic change at different stages of development.