{"title":"揭示新兴市场的 CIP 偏差：区别、决定因素和脱节","authors":"Eugenio Cerutti, Haonan Zhou","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00222-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We provide a systematic empirical analysis of short-term covered interest parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations tend to be wider and more volatile compared to most G10 currencies, and may move in an opposite direction compared to G10 currencies during global risk-off episodes. Motivated by theories of financial determinants of exchange rate, we show that while offshore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, onshore CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of offshore CIP deviations to global factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. After accounting for global factors, we find weak evidence of country default risk and FX intervention affecting EM CIP deviations.</p>","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants, and Disconnect\",\"authors\":\"Eugenio Cerutti, Haonan Zhou\",\"doi\":\"10.1057/s41308-023-00222-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We provide a systematic empirical analysis of short-term covered interest parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations tend to be wider and more volatile compared to most G10 currencies, and may move in an opposite direction compared to G10 currencies during global risk-off episodes. Motivated by theories of financial determinants of exchange rate, we show that while offshore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, onshore CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of offshore CIP deviations to global factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. After accounting for global factors, we find weak evidence of country default risk and FX intervention affecting EM CIP deviations.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47177,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"11 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00222-x\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Imf Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00222-x","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants, and Disconnect
We provide a systematic empirical analysis of short-term covered interest parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations tend to be wider and more volatile compared to most G10 currencies, and may move in an opposite direction compared to G10 currencies during global risk-off episodes. Motivated by theories of financial determinants of exchange rate, we show that while offshore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, onshore CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of offshore CIP deviations to global factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. After accounting for global factors, we find weak evidence of country default risk and FX intervention affecting EM CIP deviations.
期刊介绍：
The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome.
The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein.
Comments
“The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF
“IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF
“There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review
“To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
