Diverging Behaviors of Simulated Tropical Cyclones in Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

As a follow-on to a previous study that examined the tilt and precession evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a critical shear regime, this study examines the processes leading to the subsequent divergent evolutions in tilt and intensity. The control experiment fails to resume its precession and reintensify, while the perturbed experiments with enhanced upper-level inner-core vorticity resume the precession after a precession hiatus period. In the control experiment, a mesoscale negative absolute vorticity region forms at the upper levels due to tilting in strong downtilt convection. This upper-level, negative-vorticity region is inertially unstable, causing the inward acceleration of upper-level radial inflow. This upper-level inflow subsequently becomes negatively buoyant due to diabatic cooling and descends, bringing midlevel, low equivalent potential temperature (θE) air into the inner-core TC boundary layer, significantly disrupting the low-level TC circulation. Consequently, the disrupted TC vortex in the control is unable to recover. The upper-level negative vorticity region is absent in the perturbed experiments due to weaker downtilt convection, preventing the emergence of the disruptive inner-core downdraft. The weaker downtilt convection is caused by several factors. First, a stronger circulation aloft advects hydrometeors farther downwind, resulting in greater separation of the cooling-driven downdraft from the convective updraft region, and thus weaker dynamically forced lifting at low levels. Second, the mean θE of the low-level air feeding downtilt convection is smaller. Third, there is stronger and deeper adiabatic descent uptilt, causing more low-θE air diluting the downtilt updraft region. These results show how the full vortex structure is important to diverging TC evolutions in moderately sheared environments.