用生命游戏制作大流行病模型

IF 0.8 4区教育学 Q3 EDUCATION, SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES

American Journal of Physics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI:10.1119/5.0166146

David Faux, Thesha Thavaraja, Alana Croucher

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引用次数: 0

摘要

广义半经典生命博弈(gSCGOL)是一个元胞自动机，其中量子比特通过重复应用出生、死亡和生存算子而进化。gSCGOL用于模拟COVID-19大流行期间人-病毒相互作用，方法是将细胞“活性”等同于易受疾病影响的人群。通过对代表人口对该病毒脆弱性的参数V进行每日更改，实现了与英国每日7天平均COVID-19死亡人数的匹配。该模型预测，首个COVID-19病毒于2019年12月22日进入英国，不确定性为±1天。脆弱性V的变化阐明了2020年期间人类对正在展开的大流行的反应，量化了封锁、放松限制以及学校开放和关闭的影响。该模型预测，提前一周开始英国第一次全国封锁将导致与covid -19相关的死亡人数减少40%，相当于1.7万人的生命。

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Pandemic modeling with the game of life

The generalized semi-classical game of life (gSCGOL) is a cellular automaton in which qubits evolve through repeated applications of birth, death, and survival operators. gSCGOL is used to model human–virus interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic by using cell “liveness” to be equivalent to the human population that is vulnerable to the disease. A match to the United Kingdom (UK) daily 7-day average COVID-19 deaths was achieved by daily changes to a parameter V representing the vulnerability of the population to the virus. The model predicts that the first COVID-19 virus entered the UK on December 22, 2019 with an uncertainty of ±1 days. The changes in the vulnerability V elucidate the human response to the unfolding pandemic during 2020, quantifying the impact of the lockdown, the relaxation of restrictions, and the opening and closing of schools. The model predicts that starting the first UK national lockdown one week earlier would have led to 40% fewer COVID-19-related deaths, equivalent to 17 000 lives.

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来源期刊

American Journal of Physics 物理-物理：综合

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

11.10%

发文量

146

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： The mission of the American Journal of Physics (AJP) is to publish articles on the educational and cultural aspects of physics that are useful, interesting, and accessible to a diverse audience of physics students, educators, and researchers. Our audience generally reads outside their specialties to broaden their understanding of physics and to expand and enhance their pedagogical toolkits at the undergraduate and graduate levels.