考虑树木倒塌风险的架空配电系统综合损害建模和评估框架

IF 2.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Q. Lu, Wei Zhang
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引用次数: 6

摘要

摘要架空配电系统(OPDS)容易受到飓风等强风的影响。由于将采油树损坏风险纳入OPDS的风险评估,因此在对OPDS进行强风风险评估时,通常会忽略采油树故障。在本研究中,提出了考虑采油树失效风险的OPDS综合损伤建模与评估框架。利用计算机视觉技术,包括基于cnn(卷积神经网络)的图像分类器和滑动窗口方法,从卫星图像中提取OPDS周围树木的地理信息。利用树木地理信息,结合树木高度数据、树木异速生长和有限元分析,建立了树木失效风险模型。进一步整合倒下树木影响下杆子失效的条件概率,利用串联系统可靠性分析得到考虑风和倒下树木联合作用下的杆子失效概率。采用基于物理的贝叶斯正则化神经网络(BRNN)算法进行建模,得到了极点的失效概率。采用基于连接性的理论对系统的可靠性进行评估。当风向为逆时针风向,风速为57 m/s时,树木失效与不考虑树木倒塌情况下OPDS的失效概率差异达68.6%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An integrated damage modeling and assessment framework for overhead power distribution systems considering tree-failure risks
Abstract The overhead power distribution system (OPDS) is vulnerable to strong winds, such as hurricanes. Due to the challenges of including tree damage risks to the OPDS, tree failures are usually ignored in the risk assessment of the OPDS against strong winds. In the present study, an integrated damage modeling and assessment framework for the OPDS is proposed considering tree failure risks. The geographical information of trees surrounding the OPDS is extracted from satellite images using computer vision techniques, including CNN-based (convolutional neural network) image classifier and sliding window approach. The tree failure risk models are developed using tree geographical information in conjunction with tree height data, tree allometry and finite element analysis. With further integration of the conditional probability failure of poles under fallen tree impacts, the pole’s failure probability considering the combined wind and fallen trees is obtained using series system reliability analysis. The failure probability of the pole is obtained using physics-based modeling facilitated by Bayesian regularisation neural network (BRNN) algorithm. The poles and wires are connected for system reliability assessment using connectivity-based theory. When the wind direction is counterclockwise from the east and the wind speed is 57 m/s, tree-failure can introduce 68.6% differences in OPDS’ failure probabilities compared with that without consideration of fallen trees.
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来源期刊
Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 工程技术-工程:机械
CiteScore
9.50
自引率
8.10%
发文量
131
审稿时长
5.3 months
期刊介绍: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering - Maintenance, Management, Life-Cycle Design and Performance is an international Journal dedicated to recent advances in maintenance, management and life-cycle performance of a wide range of infrastructures, such as: buildings, bridges, dams, railways, underground constructions, offshore platforms, pipelines, naval vessels, ocean structures, nuclear power plants, airplanes and other types of structures including aerospace and automotive structures. The Journal presents research and developments on the most advanced technologies for analyzing, predicting and optimizing infrastructure performance. The main gaps to be filled are those between researchers and practitioners in maintenance, management and life-cycle performance of infrastructure systems, and those between professionals working on different types of infrastructures. To this end, the journal will provide a forum for a broad blend of scientific, technical and practical papers. The journal is endorsed by the International Association for Life-Cycle Civil Engineering ( IALCCE) and the International Association for Bridge Maintenance and Safety ( IABMAS).
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