贸易开放和人力资本会减少失业吗?印度的经验证据

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
Aadil Amin, Asif Tariq, Masroor Ahmad
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用1990年至2019年的时间序列数据,全面考察了贸易开放和人力资本对印度失业率的影响。采用ARDL绑定检验方法确定变量之间的长期和短期关系。实证结果表明,在长期和短期内,贸易开放和人力资本对失业率都有负向影响,这表明贸易开放和人力资本降低了印度的失业率。这些结果对政策制定者制定促进持续贸易开放和帮助降低印度失业率的政策具有重要意义。要取得成功,必须将贸易自由化纳入一套合理的结构性和宏观经济政策,并辅以维持适当的通胀率和宏观经济稳定以及培育人力资本等配套政策。该研究建议,印度应该优先改善和加强有效的学校教育和培训项目,特别关注年轻人的职业技能。政策制定者可以利用研究结果来指导政策决策,以减少失业和促进贸易开放。JEL代码:E24, F14, F63, C32
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Does Trade Openness and Human Capital abate Unemployment? Empirical Evidence from India
This study comprehensively investigates the impact of trade openness and human capital on India’s unemployment rate using time-series data from 1990 to 2019. The ARDL bound testing approach was used to determine the long and short-run relationship among the variables. The empirical findings indicate that trade openness and human capital have a negative impact on the unemployment rate in both the long and short run, suggesting that trade openness and human capital have reduced the unemployment rate in India. These results have significant implications for policymakers in crafting policies that promote continuous trade openness and help reduce unemployment in India. To succeed, trade liberalisation must be integrated into a reasonable set of structural and macroeconomic policies, supplemented by complementary policies such as maintaining an adequate inflation rate and macroeconomic stability and nurturing human capital. The study recommends that India should prioritise improving and enhancing efficient schooling and training programs, with a particular focus on career skills for young people. Policymakers can use the study’s findings to guide policy decisions to reduce unemployment and promote trade openness. JEL Codes: E24, F14, F63, C32
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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