Precedents in Peacemaking

This article examines the peace settlements of 1815, 1919, and 1945 with an eye towards drawing out certain insights for current conflicts, specifically the Russo-Ukrainian War. Among the points covered in this article are the position and capability of military forces, the alignments and agreements which take place before and after the main peace negotiations, the assumptions around how long a settlement might last, the influence of existing social and intellectual currents which surround the statesmen and women negotiating peace, and the importance of individual personalities in arriving at a lasting and stable peace. How long the war between Russia and Ukraine will last is uncertain, but it is more likely than not that policymakers in Moscow and Kiev, as well as their counterparts in capitals across Europe and beyond, will consider eventual negotiations. This article provides ideas and approaches from some of the most notable precedents in the 19th and 20th centuries, as a way of stimulating thinking about a future peace settlement.