抗衡与务实妥协：中东欧国家应对俄罗斯的扩张，2014-2021 年

Q4 Social Sciences

Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI:10.47459/lasr.2023.20.4

Tomasz Klin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是研究中东欧国家对待俄罗斯扩张方式的差异，进而找出解释变量。中东欧国家的政策符合权力平衡的范畴，具体来说是:制衡和迁就。评估每个中东欧国家对俄罗斯政策的方法包括收集2014-2021年活动的信息，分为三类:与俄罗斯的双边关系;与其他北约国家的关系被框定为制衡俄罗斯;在制衡俄罗斯方面与乌克兰的关系。解释不同中东欧政策的方法包括分配定量值和应用统计数据，以发现相关性。第一步的结果是将每个中东欧国家置于相对亲俄(匈牙利)和反俄(立陶宛和波兰)政策的轴心上。轴的定量版本作为统计研究的因变量，揭示了最终结果:最强的相关性体现在与俄罗斯的距离和距离上，这反映了俄罗斯最近的邻国的平衡倾向。历史上的不满和俄罗斯少数民族的规模排在第二位。然而，除匈牙利外，历史恩怨成为反俄政策的最强因素。

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Counterbalancing And Pragmatic Accommodation: CEE Countries Towards Russia’s Expansion, 2014-2021

The purpose of this article is to study the differentiation of CEE countries’ approaches towards Russia’s expansion, and then to identify explanatory variables. CEE policies fit to the balance of power categories, specifically: counterbalancing and accommodation. The method of assessing each CEE country’s policies towards Russia combines gathering information on 2014-2021 activities classified in three groups: bilateral relations with Russia; relations with other NATO countries framed as counterbalancing Russia; relations with Ukraine regarding counterbalancing Russia. The method of explanation for diverse CEE policies consists in assigning quantitative values and applying statistics in order to discover correlations. The result of the first step is placing each CEE country on the axis of relatively pro- (Hungary) and anti-Russian (Lithuania and Poland) policies. The quantitative version of the axis serves as dependent variable in the statistical research which reveals finals results: the strongest correlations are demonstrated by proximity and distance to Russia, which reflects Russia’s closest neighbors’ counterbalancing tendencies. Historical grievances and the size of Russian minorities are second-strongest. However, excluding Hungary, historical grievances become the strongest factor of anti-Russian policies.

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来源期刊

Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

36 weeks

期刊介绍： Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review is a bilingual (Lithuanian and English), peer reviewed scholarly magazine that is published once per year by the Strategic Research Center of the Military Academy of Lithuania in cooperation with Vilnius University (Institute of International Relations and Political Science) and Vytautas Magnus University in Kaunas (Political Science and Diplomacy Department). The journal focuses on the global, regional and national security problematique which directly or indirectly influence security and defense issues of Lithuania, the Baltic states and region around. The Review aims to sustain high profile scientific publications delivering rigorous analytical insights into security and defence problematique ofn the region and to be ranked as a regular and high-quality academic periodical. The Review reaches out for academic community and political practitioners and offer ample opportunities for scholarly visibility and potential impact.