英格兰老年人非正式护理的预计费用

Bo Hu, Javiera Cartagena-Farias, Nicola Brimblecombe, Shari Jadoolal, Raphael Wittenberg
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景卫生经济学研究和经济评估越来越多地从社会角度出发,考虑非正规护理的经济影响。预测非正规护理的经济成本有助于研究人员和政策制定者更好地理解政策改革和健康干预措施的长期后果。本研究对英格兰老年人非正式照护的经济成本进行了预测。方法数据来自两项全国性调查:英格兰老龄化纵向研究(ELSA,N = 35425)和英格兰健康调查(N = 17292)。我们结合马尔可夫模型和宏观模拟模型进行预测。我们探讨了一系列有关未来人口和流行病趋势的假设,以捕捉模型的不确定性,并采用贝叶斯方法捕捉参数的不确定性。结果我们估计,2019 年非正规护理的经济成本为 542 亿英镑,是正规长期护理支出的三倍。预计到 2039 年,这些成本将增长 87%,增长速度高于公共支出,但低于正规长期护理的私人支出。这些结果对有关未来预期寿命、生育率和人口残疾进展的假设非常敏感。结论旨在促进健康老龄化和独立性的预防计划对于减轻非正规护理成本非常重要。政府应加强对非正规护理人员和护理对象的支持,以确保护理的充分性,保护护理人员的福利,并防止非正规护理的成本蔓延到其他经济部门。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Projected costs of informal care for older people in England

Projected costs of informal care for older people in England

Background

Health economics research and economic evaluation have increasingly taken a societal perspective, accounting for the economic impacts of informal care. Projected economic costs of informal care help researchers and policymakers understand better the long-term consequences of policy reforms and health interventions. This study makes projections of the economic costs of informal care for older people in England.

Methods

Data come from two national surveys: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA, N = 35,425) and the Health Survey for England (N = 17,292). We combine a Markov model with a macrosimulation model to make the projections. We explore a range of assumptions about future demographic and epidemiological trends to capture model uncertainty and take a Bayesian approach to capture parameter uncertainty.

Results

We estimate that the economic costs of informal care were £54.2 billion in 2019, three times larger than the expenditure on formal long-term care. Those costs are projected to rise by 87% by 2039, faster than public expenditure but slower than private expenditure on formal long-term care. These results are sensitive to assumptions about future life expectancy, fertility rates, and progression of disabilities in the population.

Conclusions

Prevention schemes aiming to promote healthy aging and independence will be important to alleviate the costs of informal care. The government should strengthen support for informal caregivers and care recipients to ensure the adequacy of care, protect the well-being of caregivers, and prevent the costs of informal care from spilling over to other sectors of the economy.

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