Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Michaja Pehl, Gunnar Luderer
{"title":"在中国电力零净转型过程中,电力转型速度不确定情况下早期终端电气化的二氧化碳减排效果稳健","authors":"Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Michaja Pehl, Gunnar Luderer","doi":"arxiv-2312.04332","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply\nand end-use electrification. While the latter speeds up with the electric\nvehicle adoption, a rapid power sector transformation can be technologically\nand institutionally challenging. Using an integrated assessment model, we\nanalyze the synergy between power sector decarbonization and end-use\nelectrification in China's net-zero pathway from a system perspective. We show\nthat even with a slower coal power phase-out, reaching a high electrification\nrate of 60% by 2050 is a robust optimal strategy. Comparing emission intensity\nof typical end-use applications, we find most have reached parity with\nincumbent fossil fuel technologies even under China's current power mix due to\nefficiency gains. Since a 10-year delay in coal power phase-out can result in\nan additional cumulative emission of 28% (4%) of the global 1.5{\\deg}C\n(2{\\deg}C) CO2 budget, policy measures should be undertaken today to ensure a\npower sector transition without unexpected delays.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China's netzero transition\",\"authors\":\"Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Michaja Pehl, Gunnar Luderer\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2312.04332\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply\\nand end-use electrification. While the latter speeds up with the electric\\nvehicle adoption, a rapid power sector transformation can be technologically\\nand institutionally challenging. Using an integrated assessment model, we\\nanalyze the synergy between power sector decarbonization and end-use\\nelectrification in China's net-zero pathway from a system perspective. We show\\nthat even with a slower coal power phase-out, reaching a high electrification\\nrate of 60% by 2050 is a robust optimal strategy. Comparing emission intensity\\nof typical end-use applications, we find most have reached parity with\\nincumbent fossil fuel technologies even under China's current power mix due to\\nefficiency gains. Since a 10-year delay in coal power phase-out can result in\\nan additional cumulative emission of 28% (4%) of the global 1.5{\\\\deg}C\\n(2{\\\\deg}C) CO2 budget, policy measures should be undertaken today to ensure a\\npower sector transition without unexpected delays.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501487,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.04332\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.04332","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China's netzero transition
Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply
and end-use electrification. While the latter speeds up with the electric
vehicle adoption, a rapid power sector transformation can be technologically
and institutionally challenging. Using an integrated assessment model, we
analyze the synergy between power sector decarbonization and end-use
electrification in China's net-zero pathway from a system perspective. We show
that even with a slower coal power phase-out, reaching a high electrification
rate of 60% by 2050 is a robust optimal strategy. Comparing emission intensity
of typical end-use applications, we find most have reached parity with
incumbent fossil fuel technologies even under China's current power mix due to
efficiency gains. Since a 10-year delay in coal power phase-out can result in
an additional cumulative emission of 28% (4%) of the global 1.5{\deg}C
(2{\deg}C) CO2 budget, policy measures should be undertaken today to ensure a
power sector transition without unexpected delays.