Spatiotemporal Differences and Classification Regulation of Urbanization Impact on Agricultural Development in Shrinking Areas: A Case Study of 15 Shrinking Cities in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Studying the impact of urbanization on agricultural development in shrinking areas is important for maintaining food security and promoted agricultural development in China. Based on the measurement results of the shrinking cities in the three provinces of Northeast China, this paper selects 15 shrinking cities as the research object, and constructs a multi-dimensional index system to explore the impact of the urbanization level of the shrinking areas on the agricultural development in the region since 2007–2019, analyzes the influencing factors and their differences by using the geographically-weighted regression model and Geodetector, and proposes a targeted regulation strategy. The results show that: 1) overall, there is a negative correlation between the urbanization level and the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces. The urbanization level in these areas has a certain negative impact on the overall level of agricultural development; 2) regarding the time dimension, the impact of urbanization level on the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces gradually increases over time; 3) regarding the spatial pattern, the overall impact of shrinking urbanization levels in the three provinces of Northeast China on the agricultural development shows a significant distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west; 4) the total population and natural population growth rate at the end of the year were the main factors influencing a certain level of urbanization on agricultural development in the shrinking cities while population density and the urban fixed asset investment rate were the secondary factors; and 5) the main reasons why the level of agricultural development in different cities was affected by the level of urbanization were different. However, they can be categorized into areas of population loss and spatial construction, which can be further divided into area of population loss in the northeast, areas of negative population growth in the west, and areas of urban spatial change in the south. According to the causes of the impact, this paper adopted targeted regulation strategies and formulated relevant policies and solutions that cater to local conditions.