加密货币作为另一种通胀对冲工具?

L. A. Smales
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了比特币和其他加密货币与通胀预期变化之间的关系,并与传统的通胀对冲工具黄金进行了比较。我们控制了经济政策、加密货币和金融市场的不确定性,并表明加密货币回报仅在有限的情况下与美国通胀预期的变化呈正相关。与黄金不同的是,这种关系只对短期通胀预期有意义,当通胀或市场暗示的通胀预期低于2%(美联储的通胀目标)时。此外,在月度消费者价格指数(CPI)公布的日子里,加密货币的回报率往往较低,并且对CPI意外做出负面反应。我们的研究结果表明,加密货币目前并没有为投资者提供黄金对冲通胀的可行替代品。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Cryptocurrency as an alternative inflation hedge?
We examine the association of Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrency, returns with changes in inflation expectations, and form a comparison with gold, a traditional inflation hedge. We control for uncertainty in economic policy, cryptocurrency, and financial markets, and show that cryptocurrency returns are positively related to changes in US inflation expectations only for a limited set of circumstances. Unlike with gold, the identified relationship is only significant for short-term inflation expectations, and when inflation or market-implied inflation expectations are below 2% (the Fed's inflation target). Moreover, cryptocurrency returns tend to be lower on days with monthly consumer price index (CPI) announcements and respond negatively to CPI surprises. Our results suggest that cryptocurrencies do not currently offer investors a viable alternative to gold for hedging inflation.
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