Spring temperature predicts upstream migration timing of invasive Sacramento pikeminnow within its introduced range

Rapid climate change and invasive species introductions threaten ecological communities across the globe. Freshwaters are particularly vulnerable and impacted, especially when these stresses coincide. We document the migration of an invasive piscine predator, the Sacramento pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus grandis), within its introduced range, the South Fork Eel River, California, USA. Snorkel surveys and temperature monitoring in 2015–2019 showed that pikeminnow migrate upstream during spring and early summer, with earlier migration in warmer years. We developed a statistical temperature model to forecast the timing and extent of upstream migration by pikeminnow under varying combinations of discharge and air temperature. Modeled river temperature increased with air temperature and downstream and decreased with discharge. In years with low discharge and high air temperature, we predict pikeminnow will move upstream earlier, increasing spatial and temporal overlap in their summer range with native fishes. Managing conditions that reduce pikeminnow co-occurrence with native fishes (i.e., decreasing river temperature) could increase amount and duration of predator-free habitat for native fishes. We predict invasive pikeminnow will have larger impacts on invaded riverine communities with global warming and increasing drought severity. Knowledge of life history and phenology, for pikeminnow and other organisms, can guide effective management as conditions change and help to limit adverse impacts of introduced organisms on native species.