Joachim Vogt, Octav Marghitu, Adrian Blagau, Leonie Pick, Nele Stachlys, Stephan Buchert, Theodoros Sarris, Stelios Tourgaidis, Thanasis Balafoutis, Dimitrios Baloukidis, Panagiotis Pirnaris
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Motivated by the need for assessing how cost-critical mission elements such as perigee and apogee distances as well as the number of spacecraft affect the accuracy of scientific inference in the LTI, the Daedalus Ionospheric Profile Continuation (DIPCont) project is concerned with the attainable quality of in situ measurement extrapolation for different mission parameters and configurations. This report introduces the methodological framework of the DIPCont approach. Once an LTI model is chosen, ensembles of model parameters are created by means of Monte Carlo simulations using synthetic measurements based on model predictions and relative uncertainties as specified in the Daedalus Report for Assessment. The parameter ensembles give rise to ensembles of model altitude profiles for LTI variables of interest. Extrapolation quality is quantified by statistics derived from the altitude profile ensembles. The vertical extent of meaningful profile continuation is captured by the concept of extrapolation horizons defined as the boundaries of regions where the deviations remain below a prescribed error threshold. To demonstrate the methodology, the initial version of the DIPCont package presented in this paper contains a simplified LTI model with a small number of parameters. As a major source of variability, the pronounced change in temperature across the LTI is captured by self-consistent non-isothermal neutral-density and electron density profiles, constructed from scale height profiles that increase linearly with altitude. The resulting extrapolation horizons are presented for dual-satellite measurements at different inter-spacecraft distances but also for the single-satellite case to compare the two basic mission scenarios under consideration. 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Daedalus Ionospheric Profile Continuation (DIPCont): Monte Carlo studies assessing the quality of in situ measurement extrapolation
Abstract. In situ satellite exploration of the lower thermosphere–ionosphere system (LTI) as anticipated in the recent Daedalus mission proposal to ESA will be essential to advance the understanding of the interface between the Earth's atmosphere and its space environment. To address physical processes also below perigee, in situ measurements are to be extrapolated using models of the LTI. Motivated by the need for assessing how cost-critical mission elements such as perigee and apogee distances as well as the number of spacecraft affect the accuracy of scientific inference in the LTI, the Daedalus Ionospheric Profile Continuation (DIPCont) project is concerned with the attainable quality of in situ measurement extrapolation for different mission parameters and configurations. This report introduces the methodological framework of the DIPCont approach. Once an LTI model is chosen, ensembles of model parameters are created by means of Monte Carlo simulations using synthetic measurements based on model predictions and relative uncertainties as specified in the Daedalus Report for Assessment. The parameter ensembles give rise to ensembles of model altitude profiles for LTI variables of interest. Extrapolation quality is quantified by statistics derived from the altitude profile ensembles. The vertical extent of meaningful profile continuation is captured by the concept of extrapolation horizons defined as the boundaries of regions where the deviations remain below a prescribed error threshold. To demonstrate the methodology, the initial version of the DIPCont package presented in this paper contains a simplified LTI model with a small number of parameters. As a major source of variability, the pronounced change in temperature across the LTI is captured by self-consistent non-isothermal neutral-density and electron density profiles, constructed from scale height profiles that increase linearly with altitude. The resulting extrapolation horizons are presented for dual-satellite measurements at different inter-spacecraft distances but also for the single-satellite case to compare the two basic mission scenarios under consideration. DIPCont models and procedures are implemented in a collection of Python modules and Jupyter notebooks supplementing this report.
期刊介绍:
Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems (GI) is an open-access interdisciplinary electronic journal for swift publication of original articles and short communications in the area of geoscientific instruments. It covers three main areas: (i) atmospheric and geospace sciences, (ii) earth science, and (iii) ocean science. A unique feature of the journal is the emphasis on synergy between science and technology that facilitates advances in GI. These advances include but are not limited to the following:
concepts, design, and description of instrumentation and data systems;
retrieval techniques of scientific products from measurements;
calibration and data quality assessment;
uncertainty in measurements;
newly developed and planned research platforms and community instrumentation capabilities;
major national and international field campaigns and observational research programs;
new observational strategies to address societal needs in areas such as monitoring climate change and preventing natural disasters;
networking of instruments for enhancing high temporal and spatial resolution of observations.
GI has an innovative two-stage publication process involving the scientific discussion forum Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems Discussions (GID), which has been designed to do the following:
foster scientific discussion;
maximize the effectiveness and transparency of scientific quality assurance;
enable rapid publication;
make scientific publications freely accessible.