用单个度量来度量系统的行为变化

IF 1.7 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI:10.1002/sdr.1754

William Schoenberg, Robert Eberlein, Pål Davidsen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

重要的循环(LTM)提供了一种实用而全面的方法来理解哪些反馈循环在不同的时间点驱动模型行为。LTM描述了模型中所有股票的行为变化是从哪个循环开始的。在本文中，我们提出了一种方法来衡量模型中基于净流量值的所有股票的行为变化幅度，相对于整个观察(模拟)期间发生的变化幅度。我们把这个新指标称为“系统变化”。然后，我们演示如何使用循环分数来突出那些主要负责模型所展示的行为变化的循环来可视化我们的系统变化度量。这有助于分析人员关注反馈循环，这些反馈循环是改变模型行为的干预的主要候选。©2023作者。John Wiley &出版的《系统动力学评论》;儿子有限公司代表系统动力学学会。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Measuring the change in behavior of a system with a single metric

Loops that Matter (LTM) provides a practical and comprehensive way to understand which feedback loops are driving model behavior at different points in time. LTM describes from which loops the observed change in behavior across all stocks in the model originate. In this paper we present a method to measure the magnitude of the change in behavior of all stocks in the model based on net flow values, relative to the magnitude of change taking place across an entire observation (simulation) period. We call this new metric the “system change”. We then demonstrate how our system change metric can be visualized using loop scores to highlight those loops that are predominantly responsible for the changes in behavior exhibited by the model. This helps analysts focus in on the feedback loops that are prime candidates for interventions to change the model behavior. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

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来源期刊

System Dynamics Review Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The System Dynamics Review exists to communicate to a wide audience advances in the application of the perspectives and methods of system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial, and environmental problems. The Review publishes: advances in mathematical modelling and computer simulation of dynamic feedback systems; advances in methods of policy analysis based on information feedback and circular causality; generic structures (dynamic feedback systems that support particular widely applicable behavioural insights); system dynamics contributions to theory building in the social and natural sciences; policy studies and debate emphasizing the role of feedback and circular causality in problem behaviour.