宿主摄食偏好和温度塑造了西尼罗河病毒的动态:评估减少计划的数学模型

Suman Bhowmick, Megan Fritz, Rebecca Lee Smith
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摘要

西尼罗河病毒(WNV)在美国流行,但它在传播模式和时空强度上表现出相当大的差异。值得注意的是,驱动西尼罗河病毒传播潜力的机制是由宿主物种维持和传播病原体的能力来描述的,这些病原体与不同的生态流行病学因素有关,这些因素对相互作用物种之间的接触率有影响。越来越多的证据表明,几种病媒对不同的寄主社区表现出强烈的摄食偏好。我们构建了一个基于天气驱动的常微分方程(ODE)模型,以了解一种媒介库蚊、首选鸟类和非首选人类宿主的影响,并对美国伊利诺伊州库克县采集的库蚊群监测数据进行了比较。在我们的机制模型中,我们也证明了杀虫处理显著减少了库蚊的数量。为了建立西尼罗河病毒的传播模型,我们考虑了取食指数,即观察到的蚊子取食一个宿主的频率与另一个宿主的频率之比,除以基于特定宿主存在的蚊子取食这两个宿主的预期频率。我们的研究结果表明,摄食指数与蚊虫防治策略之间的相互作用是一个相当复杂的现象,它导致了异质性的接触率,在建立多宿主、多媒介传播模型时应包括这一异质性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Host-feeding preferences and temperature shape the dynamics of West Nile virus: a mathematical model of assessing the abatement planning
West Nile virus (WNV) is prevalent in the United States but it shows considerable divergence in transmission patterns and spatio-temporal intensity.It is to be noted that the mechanism that drives the transmission potential of WNV is described by the abilities of host species to maintain and disseminate the pathogens pertinent with different eco-epidemiological factors that have an influence on the contact rates amongst the interacting species.There is growing evidence that several vectors exhibit strong feeding preferences towards different host communities.We construct a process based weather driven ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to understand the impact of one vector species Culex pipiens, preferred avian and non-preferred human hosts and compared it surveillance data for the Culex pipiens complex collected in Cook County, Illinois, USA.In our mechanistic model, we also demonstrate that adulticide treatments produced significant reductions in the Culex pipiens population.We take into account the feeding index that can be described as the ratio between observed frequency of mosquitoes feeding on one host compared to another host, divided by the expected frequency of mosquitoes feeding on these two hosts based on the presence of the particular hosts to develop this transmission model for WNV. Our findings demonstrate that the interplay between the feeding index and mosquito abatement strategy is rather a complex phenomenon and it induces a heterogeneous contact rates that should be included while modelling multi-host, multi-vector transmission model.
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