意见趋同

arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI:arxiv-2312.02033

Vladimir Vovk

{"title":"意见趋同","authors":"Vladimir Vovk","doi":"arxiv-2312.02033","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper establishes a game-theoretic version of the classical\nBlackwell-Dubins result. We consider two forecasters who at each step issue\nprobability forecasts for the infinite future. Our result says that either at\nleast one of the two forecasters will be discredited or their forecasts will\nconverge in total variation.","PeriodicalId":501330,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory","volume":"88 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Convergence of opinions\",\"authors\":\"Vladimir Vovk\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2312.02033\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper establishes a game-theoretic version of the classical\\nBlackwell-Dubins result. We consider two forecasters who at each step issue\\nprobability forecasts for the infinite future. Our result says that either at\\nleast one of the two forecasters will be discredited or their forecasts will\\nconverge in total variation.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501330,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory\",\"volume\":\"88 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.02033\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.02033","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文建立了经典blackwell - dubins结果的博弈论版本。我们考虑两个预测者，他们在每一步都对无限的未来进行概率预测。我们的结果表明，两个预测者中至少有一个将被怀疑，或者他们的预测将在总变化中收敛。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Convergence of opinions

This paper establishes a game-theoretic version of the classical Blackwell-Dubins result. We consider two forecasters who at each step issue probability forecasts for the infinite future. Our result says that either at least one of the two forecasters will be discredited or their forecasts will converge in total variation.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

arXiv - MATH - Statistics Theory

自引率

0.00%

发文量