印度相对投资价格的起落:一个关于政策错误和改革的故事

IF 6.3 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2021-12-30 DOI:10.1257/mac.20180411

Alok Johri, Md Mahbubur Rahman

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引用次数: 0

摘要

印度的相对投资价格从1981年到1991年上升了44%，从1991年到2006年下降了26%。我们建立了一个简单的DGE模型，并对印度的数据进行了校准，以探讨资本进口替代政策及其1991年后的改革对这种起伏的影响。我们的模型显示，改革前的增长率为23%，改革后的增长率为31%。由于对资本货物的进口限制，1991年的人均有效劳动力GDP比1981年低3%。取消关税，再加上关税税率降低71个百分点，人均有效劳动力GDP永久性提高了20%。(jel e22, e23, f13, o11, o16, o19)

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The Rise and Fall of India’s Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform

India’s relative price of investment rose 44 percent from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26 percent from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model, calibrated to Indian data, in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991 in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23 percent rise before reform and a 31 percent fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3 percent lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital goods. Their removal, and a 71 percentage point reduction in tariff rates, raised GDP per effective labor permanently by 20 percent. (JEL E22, E23, F13, O11, O16, O19)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.