预测新冠病毒在德国的传播

IF 1.2 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

German Economic Review Pub Date : 2020-06-26 DOI:10.1515/ger-2020-0031

Jean Roch Donsimoni, René Glawion, Bodo Plachter, Klaus Wälde

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们模拟了德国报告的COVID-19患病人数的演变。我们的理论框架建立在一个连续的时间马尔可夫链上，它有四种状态:健康但没有感染、生病、康复后健康或尽管感染但没有症状、死亡。我们的定量解决方案与最近观察到的患病个体数量相匹配，并根据感染率和患病概率得出患病个体的比例。我们利用这一框架来研究在没有社会接触公共监管的情况下，德国患病人数的预期峰值。我们还研究了公共法规的影响。对于所有情况，我们都会报告新冠病毒流行的预期结束日期。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany

Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.

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来源期刊

German Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： German Economic Review, the official publication of the German Economic Association (Verein für Socialpolitik), is an international journal publishing original and rigorous research of general interest in a broad range of economic disciplines, including: - macro- and microeconomics - economic policy - international economics - public economics - finance - business administration The scope of research approaches includes theoretical, empirical and experimental work. Innovative and thought-provoking contributions, in particular from younger authors, are especially welcome.