Body weight at 1.5- and 3-year health checks and body fat at 14 years of age: a population-based retrospective cohort study using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry

In Japan, height and weight measurements, taken for all children at birth and 1.5- and 3-year health checks, are recorded in the Mother and Child Health (MCH) Handbook, as required by the law. The present population-based retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of height and weight records in the Handbook for predicting excessive adiposity in adolescents. The source population consisted of 8th grade students (800 students aged 14 years) registered at two public junior high schools. Of these, we excluded students who were born at a gestational age < 37 weeks or > 42 weeks. The present analyses included 435 participants who provided complete information. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated using height and weight records. Body fat mass at 14 years of age was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Diagnostic performance of BMI calculated from the MCH Handbook records to discriminate between the presence and absence of excessive adiposity at 14 years of age was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of BMI. With regard to the prediction of excessive fat at 14 years of age, AUCs and 95% confidence intervals for BMI at 1.5 and 3 years of age were greater than 0.5. Meanwhile, the AUC of BMI at birth was not significantly greater than 0.5. The present study findings indicate that BMI values calculated using MCH Handbook data have potential ability to distinguish between the presence and absence of excessive fat at 14 years of age.