方差、风险溢价、资产可预测性难题和宏观经济不确定性

IF 5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Hao Zhou
{"title":"方差、风险溢价、资产可预测性难题和宏观经济不确定性","authors":"Hao Zhou","doi":"10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022737","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews the predictability evidence on the variance risk premium: (a) It predicts significant positive risk premia across equity, bond, currency, and credit markets; (b) the predictability peaks at few-month horizons and dies out afterward; (c) such a short-run predictability is complementary to the long-run predictability offered by the price-to-earnings ratio, forward rate, interest differential, and leverage ratio. Several structural approaches based on the notion of economic uncertainty are discussed for generating these stylized facts about the variance risk premium, which has broad implications for various empirical asset pricing puzzles.","PeriodicalId":47162,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty\",\"authors\":\"Hao Zhou\",\"doi\":\"10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022737\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This article reviews the predictability evidence on the variance risk premium: (a) It predicts significant positive risk premia across equity, bond, currency, and credit markets; (b) the predictability peaks at few-month horizons and dies out afterward; (c) such a short-run predictability is complementary to the long-run predictability offered by the price-to-earnings ratio, forward rate, interest differential, and leverage ratio. Several structural approaches based on the notion of economic uncertainty are discussed for generating these stylized facts about the variance risk premium, which has broad implications for various empirical asset pricing puzzles.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47162,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Annual Review of Financial Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Annual Review of Financial Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022737\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annual Review of Financial Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022737","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本文回顾了方差风险溢价的可预测性证据:(a)它预测了股票、债券、货币和信贷市场的显著正风险溢价;(b)可预测性在几个月的范围内达到峰值,之后逐渐消失;(c)这种短期可预测性与市盈率、远期利率、息差和杠杆率所提供的长期可预测性是互补的。本文讨论了几种基于经济不确定性概念的结构方法,以产生这些关于方差风险溢价的程式化事实,这对各种经验性资产定价难题具有广泛的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
This article reviews the predictability evidence on the variance risk premium: (a) It predicts significant positive risk premia across equity, bond, currency, and credit markets; (b) the predictability peaks at few-month horizons and dies out afterward; (c) such a short-run predictability is complementary to the long-run predictability offered by the price-to-earnings ratio, forward rate, interest differential, and leverage ratio. Several structural approaches based on the notion of economic uncertainty are discussed for generating these stylized facts about the variance risk premium, which has broad implications for various empirical asset pricing puzzles.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
26
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信