总收益信息性与经济冲击:国际证据

IF 1.4 4区经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics Pub Date : 2021-07-20 DOI:10.1080/16081625.2021.1952084

Yuto Yoshinaga, Makoto Nakano

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要一项研究提出用总收益来预测未来GDP增长。通过对全球季度数据的实证分析，我们调查了作为总收益组成部分的总水平盈利驱动因素是否与预测GDP增长相关。在确认了总体水平的盈利能力驱动因素对预测未来全球GDP增长有用之后，我们表明，考虑危机的影响可以改善GDP增长的预测模型。此外，我们认为，利用总体盈利能力驱动因素预测GDP增长与发达国家的股票估值相关，但与新兴国家的股票估值无关。

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Aggregate earnings informativeness and economic shocks: international evidence

ABSTRACT

Our study proposes the usage of aggregate earnings to forecast future GDP growth. Using empirical analyses with global quarterly data, we investigate whether aggregate-level profitability drivers, which are components of aggregate earnings, are relevant for forecasting GDP growth. After confirming that aggregate-level profitability drivers are useful for forecasting future GDP growth worldwide, we show that considering the effects of crises improves the forecast model of GDP growth. In addition, we suggest that predicting GDP growth using aggregate-level profitability drivers is relevant for stock valuation in developed countries, but not in emerging countries.

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来源期刊

Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics (APJAE) is an international forum intended for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of economics and accounting in general. In particular, the journal encourages submissions in the following areas: Auditing, financial reporting, earnings management, financial analysts, the role of accounting information, international trade and finance, industrial organization, strategic behavior, market structure, financial contracts, corporate governance, capital markets, and financial institutions. The journal welcomes contributions related to the Asia Pacific region, and targets top quality research from scholars with diverse regional interests. The editors encourage submission of high quality manuscripts with innovative ideas. The editorial team is committed to an expedient review process.