用物理方法阐明稳定性和不稳定性问题,以及金融系统中的艾略特波:标准普尔500指数为例研究

IF 3.2 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Güngör Gündüz
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引用次数: 4

摘要

金融系统的动力学不仅取决于布朗运动,而且取决于波动的波动行为。利用1986 - 2019年标准普尔500指数的每日数据,运用统计力学和粘弹性理论对其进行了阐释。利用数据的散射图,可以在“因果关系”原理的基础上研究资产价值或股票市场指数的粘弹性行为。散射图中连续矢量之间的夹角显示出一些特殊的角度偏离了百分比出现的主要过程。这些角度对应于相对更稳定的状态,它们可以用黄金比例来表示。在金融系统中观察到的艾略特波浪和黄金比例可以用这些特殊角度的存在来解释。每当稳定性是主要关注,如在急剧下跌或急剧上涨,也在艾略特波浪这些角度更频繁地显示。艾略特波的形成原理建立在物理和数学的基础上。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Physical approach to elucidate stability and instability issues, and Elliott waves in financial systems: S & P-500 index as case study
The dynamics of financial systems depends not only on Brownian motion but also on wave-like behavior of fluctuations. Statistical mechanics and viscoelastic theory were used to elucidate it by using the daily data of S & P-500 from 1986 to 2019. The viscoelastic behavior of asset values or stock market index can be studied within the basis of "cause-and-effect" principle by using scattering diagram of the data. The angles between the consecutive vectors in scattering diagram reveal that some peculiar angles deviate from the main course of the percent occurrence. These angles correspond to relatively more stable states, and they can be expressed in terms of golden ratio. The Elliott waves and golden ratio observed in financial systems can be explained by the existence of these peculiar angles. Whenever stability is of major concern such as in sharp falls or sharp increases and also in Elliott waves these angles reveal more frequently. The formation principles of Elliott waves were established on physical and mathematical grounds.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.30
自引率
1.90%
发文量
14
审稿时长
12 weeks
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