{"title":"气候变化和经济政策下的南亚粮食安全","authors":"Sun Yan, Shahzad Alvi","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-10-2021-0113","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second purpose is to assess the agricultural subsidies and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as policy responses to climate change.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>The present study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and econometric approach in an integrated manner to examine the economic impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes in South Asian countries. An econometric model is used to identify the impact of climate change on cereal yields and CGE approach is used to assess the future effect of climate change through simulations. In this course, the econometric findings are applied to Multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project 10 and then the model is calibrated for future projection.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>The results indicate that there is a decrease in cereals production because of climate change and eventually it increases the prices of cereals, decreases the local consumption and GDP and, as a result, causes a loss in welfare. Subsidies and SAFTA have been found to have no substantial impact on increasing food security in South Asia.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>The present study uses the concept of food demand for all cereals in an integrated way and focuses on the fiscal and trade policy responses to climate change.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":"7 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Food security in South Asia under climate change and economic policies\",\"authors\":\"Sun Yan, Shahzad Alvi\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/ijccsm-10-2021-0113\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second purpose is to assess the agricultural subsidies and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as policy responses to climate change.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>The present study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and econometric approach in an integrated manner to examine the economic impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes in South Asian countries. An econometric model is used to identify the impact of climate change on cereal yields and CGE approach is used to assess the future effect of climate change through simulations. In this course, the econometric findings are applied to Multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project 10 and then the model is calibrated for future projection.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>The results indicate that there is a decrease in cereals production because of climate change and eventually it increases the prices of cereals, decreases the local consumption and GDP and, as a result, causes a loss in welfare. Subsidies and SAFTA have been found to have no substantial impact on increasing food security in South Asia.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\\n<p>The present study uses the concept of food demand for all cereals in an integrated way and focuses on the fiscal and trade policy responses to climate change.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\",\"PeriodicalId\":46689,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management\",\"volume\":\"7 16\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-04-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-10-2021-0113\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-10-2021-0113","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Food security in South Asia under climate change and economic policies
Purpose
The first purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes on food security, welfare and GDP in South Asian countries. The second purpose is to assess the agricultural subsidies and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as policy responses to climate change.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework and econometric approach in an integrated manner to examine the economic impacts of climate-caused cereal productivity changes in South Asian countries. An econometric model is used to identify the impact of climate change on cereal yields and CGE approach is used to assess the future effect of climate change through simulations. In this course, the econometric findings are applied to Multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project 10 and then the model is calibrated for future projection.
Findings
The results indicate that there is a decrease in cereals production because of climate change and eventually it increases the prices of cereals, decreases the local consumption and GDP and, as a result, causes a loss in welfare. Subsidies and SAFTA have been found to have no substantial impact on increasing food security in South Asia.
Originality/value
The present study uses the concept of food demand for all cereals in an integrated way and focuses on the fiscal and trade policy responses to climate change.
期刊介绍：
Effective from volume 10 (2018), International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an open access journal. In the history of science there have been only a few issues which have mobilized the attention of scientists and policy-makers alike as the issue of climate change currently does. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an international forum that addresses the need for disseminating scholarly research, projects and other initiatives aimed to facilitate a better understanding of the subject matter of climate change. The journal publishes papers dealing with policy-making on climate change, and methodological approaches to cope with the problems deriving from climate change. It disseminates experiences from projects and case studies where due consideration to environmental, economic, social and political aspects is given and especially the links and leverages that can be attained by this holistic approach. It regards climate change under the perspective of its wider implications: for economic growth, water and food security, and for people''s survival – especially those living in the poorest communities in developing countries.
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