美国经济政策的不确定性对韩国有影响吗?

IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS
Seojin Lee
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用Baker等人(2016)制定的经济政策不确定性指标,考察了美国经济政策不确定性对韩国经济不确定性以及韩美外汇风险的影响。主要发现是:(1)政策不确定性从美国向韩国的溢出程度相当大,但程度不高;(2)美国政策不确定性对韩元汇率风险的影响强于韩国政策不确定性和其他宏观变量。这意味着,美国经济政策的不确定性是影响韩美汇率的重要因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US: Does It Matter for Korea?
Using the indicators of economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016), this paper investigates the effects of the US economic policy uncertainty on the Korea economic uncertainty as well as Korea-US foreign exchange risk. The key findings are that: (i) the degree of spillovers of policy uncertainty from the US to Korea is considerable but not comparatively high; (ii) the US policy uncertainty plays a stronger and more consistent role in Korean currency risk than Korea policy uncertainty and other macro variables. It implies that the economic policy uncertainty in the US is an important contributor to Korea-US exchange rates.
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