比较过去和现在的通货膨胀

IF 5.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Review of Finance Pub Date : 2022-08-05 DOI:10.1093/rof/rfac047

Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers

{"title":"比较过去和现在的通货膨胀","authors":"Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers","doi":"10.1093/rof/rfac047","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics.","PeriodicalId":48036,"journal":{"name":"Review of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Comparing Past and Present Inflation\",\"authors\":\"Marijn A Bolhuis, Judd N L Cramer, Lawrence H Summers\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/rof/rfac047\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48036,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Review of Finance\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-08-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Review of Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac047\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Review of Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac047","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

随着时间的推移，消费者价格指数(CPI)的计算方法发生了重要变化。这扭曲了不同时期的通胀比较，随着通胀升至40年来的高点，这种情况变得更加普遍。为了更好地理解当前通货膨胀的背景，本文构建了新的CPI标题和核心通货膨胀历史序列，这些序列更符合当前的做法和战后时期的支出份额。使用这些序列，我们发现当前的通胀水平比官方序列所显示的更接近过去的通胀峰值。尤其值得一提的是，用今天的住房数据来衡量，沃尔克时代政策导致的核心CPI反通胀率要低得多:官方CPI统计数据仅下降了5个百分点，而不是11个百分点。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Comparing Past and Present Inflation

There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Review of Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

2.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Review of Finance, the official journal of the European Finance Association, aims at a wide circulation and visibility in the finance profession. The journal publishes high-quality papers in all areas of financial economics, both established and newly developing fields: • •Asset pricing •Corporate finance •Banking and market microstructure •Law and finance •Behavioral finance •Experimental finance Review of Finance occasionally publishes special issues on timely topics, including selected papers presented at the meetings of the European Finance Association or at other selected conferences in the field.