{"title":"在供应不确定的情况下制定国家大流行疫苗接种日程表","authors":"Sırma Karakaya, Burcu Balcik","doi":"10.1016/j.omega.2023.103001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced challenges in developing and maintaining a reliable national pandemic vaccination calendar due to vaccine supply uncertainty. Deviating from the initial calendar due to vaccine delivery delays eroded public trust in health authorities and the government, hindering vaccination efforts. Motivated by these challenges, we address the problem of developing a long-term national pandemic vaccination calendar under supply uncertainty. We propose a novel two-stage mixed integer programming model that considers critical factors such as multiple doses, varying dosing schemes, and uncertainties in vaccine delivery timing and quantity. We present an efficient aggregation-based algorithm to solve this complex problem. Additionally, we extend our model to allow for dynamic adjustments to the vaccine schedule in response to mandatory policy changes, such as modifications to dose intervals, during ongoing vaccinations. We validate our model based on a case study developed by using real COVID-19 vaccination data from Norway. Our results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed stochastic optimization approach and heuristic algorithm. We also present valuable managerial insights through extensive numerical analysis, which can aid public health authorities in preparing for future pandemics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":19529,"journal":{"name":"Omega-international Journal of Management Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Developing a national pandemic vaccination calendar under supply uncertainty\",\"authors\":\"Sırma Karakaya, Burcu Balcik\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.omega.2023.103001\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced challenges in developing and maintaining a reliable national pandemic vaccination calendar due to vaccine supply uncertainty. Deviating from the initial calendar due to vaccine delivery delays eroded public trust in health authorities and the government, hindering vaccination efforts. Motivated by these challenges, we address the problem of developing a long-term national pandemic vaccination calendar under supply uncertainty. We propose a novel two-stage mixed integer programming model that considers critical factors such as multiple doses, varying dosing schemes, and uncertainties in vaccine delivery timing and quantity. We present an efficient aggregation-based algorithm to solve this complex problem. Additionally, we extend our model to allow for dynamic adjustments to the vaccine schedule in response to mandatory policy changes, such as modifications to dose intervals, during ongoing vaccinations. We validate our model based on a case study developed by using real COVID-19 vaccination data from Norway. Our results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed stochastic optimization approach and heuristic algorithm. We also present valuable managerial insights through extensive numerical analysis, which can aid public health authorities in preparing for future pandemics.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19529,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Omega-international Journal of Management Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Omega-international Journal of Management Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048323001652\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Omega-international Journal of Management Science","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048323001652","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
Developing a national pandemic vaccination calendar under supply uncertainty
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced challenges in developing and maintaining a reliable national pandemic vaccination calendar due to vaccine supply uncertainty. Deviating from the initial calendar due to vaccine delivery delays eroded public trust in health authorities and the government, hindering vaccination efforts. Motivated by these challenges, we address the problem of developing a long-term national pandemic vaccination calendar under supply uncertainty. We propose a novel two-stage mixed integer programming model that considers critical factors such as multiple doses, varying dosing schemes, and uncertainties in vaccine delivery timing and quantity. We present an efficient aggregation-based algorithm to solve this complex problem. Additionally, we extend our model to allow for dynamic adjustments to the vaccine schedule in response to mandatory policy changes, such as modifications to dose intervals, during ongoing vaccinations. We validate our model based on a case study developed by using real COVID-19 vaccination data from Norway. Our results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed stochastic optimization approach and heuristic algorithm. We also present valuable managerial insights through extensive numerical analysis, which can aid public health authorities in preparing for future pandemics.
期刊介绍:
Omega reports on developments in management, including the latest research results and applications. Original contributions and review articles describe the state of the art in specific fields or functions of management, while there are shorter critical assessments of particular management techniques. Other features of the journal are the "Memoranda" section for short communications and "Feedback", a correspondence column. Omega is both stimulating reading and an important source for practising managers, specialists in management services, operational research workers and management scientists, management consultants, academics, students and research personnel throughout the world. The material published is of high quality and relevance, written in a manner which makes it accessible to all of this wide-ranging readership. Preference will be given to papers with implications to the practice of management. Submissions of purely theoretical papers are discouraged. The review of material for publication in the journal reflects this aim.