Dynamics of tuberculosis infection in various populations during the 19th and 20th century: The impact of conservative and pharmaceutical treatments

Humans and Mycobacterium tuberculosis have co-evolved together for thousands of years. Many individuals are infected with the bacterium, but few show signs and symptoms of tuberculosis (TB). Pharmacotherapy to treat those who develop disease is useful, but drug resistance and non-adherence significantly impact the efficacy of these treatments. Prior to the introduction of antibiotic therapies, public health strategies were used to reduce TB mortality. This work shows how these strategies were able to reduce TB mortality in 19th and 20th century populations, compared with antibiotic treatments.

Previously published mortality data from historical records for several populations (Switzerland, Germany, England and Wales, Scotland, USA, Japan, Brazil and South Africa) were used. Curvilinear regression was used to examine the reduction in mortality before and after the introduction of antibiotic treatments (1946).

A strong decline in TB mortality was already occurring in Switzerland, Germany, England and Wales, Scotland and the USA prior to the introduction of antibiotic treatment. This occurred following many public health interventions including improved sanitation, compulsory reporting of TB cases, diagnostic techniques and sanatoria treatments. Following the introduction of antibiotics, mortality rates declined further, however, this had a smaller effect than the previously employed strategies. In Japan, Brazil and South Africa, reductions in mortality rates were largely driven by antibiotic treatments that caused rapid decline of mortality, with a smaller contribution from public health strategies.

For the development of active disease, immune status is important. Individuals infected with the bacterium are more likely to develop signs and symptoms if their immune function is reduced. Effective strategies against TB can therefore include enhancing immune function of the population by improving nutrition, as well as reducing transmission by improving living conditions and public health. This has been effective in the past. Improving immunity may be an important strategy against drug resistant TB.