Climate shocks, vulnerability, resilience and livelihoods in rural Zambia

Climate and weather shocks pose risks to livelihoods in Southern Africa. We assess the extent to which smallholders are exposed to climate shocks in Zambia and how behavioural choices influence the negative effects of these shocks on vulnerability and resilience. We use household data from the nationally representative Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey and employ an instrumental variable probit regression model to control for the endogeneity of key choice variables. There are four main findings. First, droughts are the most prevalent climate shock faced by rural smallholder farmers in Zambia, but the extent of exposure differs spatially, with the Southern and Western Provinces being the hardest hit. Nationally, 76% of all smallholder farmers are vulnerable and only 24% are resilient, with female households most vulnerable. Second, increased climate shocks correlate with both increased vulnerability and reduced resilience, with short- and long-term deviations in seasonal rainfall worsening vulnerability and resilience. Third, higher asset endowments and education are correlated with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. And last, climate-smart agricultural practices significantly improve household resilience. These findings imply a need to support scaling of climate-smart agricultural technologies and to invest in risk mitigation strategies such as weather-indexed insurance and targeted social cash transfers.