Novel evaluation methodology for mechanical behaviour and instability risk of roof structure using limited investigation data

ABSTRACTHow to use limited investigation data to analyse the failure of roof engineering is a challenging problem. In this paper, a novel risk analysis method for the mechanical structure of a roof is proposed. Firstly, the Copula theory is presented and the construction method of multidimensional Gaussian Copula parameters is given. Secondly, a Copula method of the mechanical characteristics and instability risk of roof structure with E, ν, c and φ as uncertain variables is proposed. Thirdly, based on the investigation data of 192 roof groups in China, the influence of Copula mechanical parameters on the failure probability of the roof structure is analysed and discussed. This new evaluation methodology can use various Copula functions to simulate the positive and negative correlation structures, which provides an effective way to clarify the mechanical characteristics and instability risk of roof structure using limited investigation data. The results show that the mechanical failure of the roof structure is mainly at the bottom. As the correlation of mechanical parameters increases, the failure probability of the mechanical structure decreases significantly. In the simulation of positive and negative correlation parameters, Gaussian Copula and No.16 Copula, respectively, make the roof have the smallest failure probability.KEYWORDS: Mechanical behaviourinstability riskroof structurereliabilityfailure probability Additional informationFundingThis research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42371133 and 42372329], the Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Coal Mining and Clean Utilization (China Coal Research Institute) [grant number 2021-CMCU-KF019], the Opening Fund of Technology Innovation Center for Mine Geological Environment Restoration in the Alpine and Arid Regions [grant number HHGCKK2205], and the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention of Hilly Mountains, Ministry of Natural Resources (Fujian Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention) [grant number FJKLGH2023K003].