对国内软件的公共投资是加速俄罗斯经济发展的工具

D. V. Shimanovsky
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究目的:旨在刺激国民经济增长的国家政策必须以合理的科学结论和实证研究结果为基础。特别是,加快国家经济发展的一个相对较新的方法是国家对经济数字化的投资。在这方面,本研究的目的是大致估计在发展国内软件和数据库方面的额外公共投资以及信息技术专家在总就业结构中所占份额的增加所产生的经济影响。材料和方法。本文采用基于Rosstat统计的面板数据回归分析方法。特别地,作者运用了计量经济学的固定效应模型。结果。该研究表明,与其他类型固定资产的类似效率相比,在软件和数据库开发方面的投资效率更高。对国内软件开发商额外预算融资可能产生的经济影响进行了估计。计算结果清楚地表明,每年对俄罗斯软件和数据库的额外资本投资占俄罗斯联邦综合预算的0.16%至0.64%(以2020年价格计算,与同期规模相关),可以使俄罗斯的GDP每年增长0.16-2.44个百分点。与此同时,这些计算几乎不可能谈论额外的政府支出对it部门就业人数增加的强烈影响。因此,不能肯定地说,在俄罗斯大学中进一步增加信息技术领域的国家资助名额是明智的。然而,这个结论是基于面板数据,其时间间隔结束于2020年。考虑到近年来的趋势,可以质疑所得结论的相关性。结论。因此,增加对国民经济数字化和俄罗斯企业业务流程自动化的公共投资是加速俄罗斯经济发展的重要工具。目前,许多国内企业和组织实施了旨在深化自动化的大型项目(创建“智能工厂”,将国有金融机构的文件流程转换为电子形式,引入人工智能等)。此外,由于一些外国软件制造商在俄罗斯的存在减少,因此有必要尽量减少因停止使用外国软件和数据库而造成的损失。解决这一问题的选择之一是对国内同行的开发商进行财政刺激。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Public Investments in Domestic Software as a Tool for Accelerating the Economic Development of Russia
Purpose of the study. The state policy aimed at stimulating national economic growth should necessarily be based on justified scientific conclusions and the results of empirical studies. In particular, a relatively new method for accelerating the country’s economic development is state investment in the digitalization of the economy. In this respect, the present study aims to roughly estimate the economic effect of additional public investments in the development of domestic software and databases and the increase in the share of IT specialists in the total employment structure. Materials and methods. The paper used regression analysis methods for panel data based on Rosstat statistics. In particular, the authors applied the econometric fixed effects model. Results. The study demonstrated the higher efficiency of investment in the development of software and databases as compared to the similar efficiency of capital investment in other types of fixed assets. The possible economic effect of additional budget financing for domestic software developers was estimated. The results of calculations clearly demonstrate that additional capital investments in Russian software and databases in the amount from 0.16 to 0.64% of the Russian Federation’s consolidated budget annually (in 2020 prices and in relation to its size for the same period) can accelerate GDP growth in Russia by 0.16-2.44 percentage points per year. At the same time, these calculations hardly make it possible to speak about a strong impact of additional government spending on the increase in the number of people employed in the IT sector. Consequently, it cannot be stated with certainty that it is advisable to further increase the number of state-funded places at Russian universities in IT areas. However, this conclusion is based on panel data, the time interval of which ends in 2020. Taking into account the recent years’ trends can question the relevance of the obtained conclusion. Conclusion. Thus, additional public investment in the digitalization of the national economy and automation of business processes at Russian enterprises is an important tool for accelerating Russia’s economic development. Currently, many domestic enterprises and organizations implement large-scale projects aimed at deepening automation (creating “smart factories”, transferring state-financed institutions’ document flow into an electronic form, introducing artificial intelligence, and many others). Besides, the reduction in the presence of some foreign software manufacturers in Russia makes it relevant to minimize losses associated with the termination of access to foreign software and databases. One of the options for solving this problem is the financial stimulation of developers of their domestic counterparts.
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